13364 Sterling Hwy

Ninilchik, AK 99639

$849,000D+

24 bd · 7.0 ba · 5,324 sqft · Built 2006 · MultiFamily · Pending · 312 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,639/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax + insurance: −$692
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,394
• Net cashflow: $101/mo
• Annual: $1,208/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $237,720

Investor read

• This is a 24-bed/7.0-bath multifamily listed at $849k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $664k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 312 days — a 12% lower offer ($747k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $664k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#102 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 312 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.