13364 Sterling Hwy · Ninilchik, AK 99639

$849,000

24 bd · 7.0 ba · 5,324 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 312 Days on market

Built 2006 22 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Many uses could be on site Charter Business , Supper club, Vacation or long term rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Seller financing is available. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License (see ABC Regs under Documents. The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment. Additional features include a 1,400 SF Shop currently used as living space, storage areas, and even a private shooting range. With ample room for expansion and endless possibilities, this property must be seen to be fully appreciated.

Key facts

• 21 acres
• Full kitchen
• Private residence

Tags

• 21 ACRES
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SEVEN CABINS
• FULL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RESIDENCE
• SPACIOUS GAZEBO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 24-bed/7.0-bath multifamily listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $664k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $664k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#102 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 312 days — a 12% lower offer ($747k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $663,900 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 312 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $54,883
• Equity at exit: $324,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $255,995
• Equity at exit: $460,272

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99639

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 74.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$338 /mo · $4,058/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,394
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,512

Max offer price $849,000

Occupancy floor 93%

7-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	2	1	$6,636
Total (7 units)			$6,639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

3. 2025-10-23
   status Active 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

4. 2025-10-23
   status Active 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

5. 2025-09-21
   status Pending 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

6. 2025-09-21
   status Pending 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

7. 2025-06-06
   listed $849,000 Active 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Once home to a dance hall, supper club, vacation rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Scenic Acres! Owner Financing available with 30% down. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License. (see ABC Regs on docs) The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment.

8. 2025-06-04
   price $849,000 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Many uses could be on site Charter Business , Supper club, Vacation or long term rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Seller financing is available. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License (see ABC Regs under Documents. The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment. Additional features include a 1,400 SF Shop currently used as living space, storage areas, and even a private shooting range. With ample room for expansion and endless possibilities, this property must be seen to be fully appreciated.

9. 2025-06-04
   listed $894,000 Active 1168-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

   Endless Potential on 21+ Scenic Acres! Discover a rare opportunity to own over 21 acres of park-like land with sweeping mountain views and versatile infrastructure. Many uses could be on site Charter Business , Supper club, Vacation or long term rentals, and a private residence, this unique property blends Alaskan rustic charm with quality craftsmanship. Seller financing is available. Buyer could apply for a Tourism Liquor License (see ABC Regs under Documents. The thoughtfully developed grounds include seven 384 SF cabins with 126 square foot porches attached, each with a full kitchen, bathroom, and living area ideal for short-term rentals or guest lodging. Three cozy bunkhouses sleep four each, and a custom-built two-story home offers a comfortable primary residence with mountain views. A spacious gazebo provides the perfect venue for gatherings or events, while a pole barn accommodates tools, toys, and equipment. Additional features include a 1,400 SF Shop currently used as living space, storage areas, and even a private shooting range. With ample room for expansion and endless possibilities, this property must be seen to be fully appreciated.

10. 2024-06-26
    status Active
11. 2023-06-26
    listed $885,000 Active
12. 2018-08-28
    listed $1,200,000
13. 2012-05-03
    listed $590,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,058 · $338/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,081 · $590/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,023/yr (+$252/mo · 74.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$4,058
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,373
• − Management: −$6,373
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable loss: −$13,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,273
• After-tax cash flow: $4,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Ninilchik

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #21258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ninilchik, AK
• City population: 1,244
• Population (ZIP): 1,244

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 13% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 131.5079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+43.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-09-21 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-09-21 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $849,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $849,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $894,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-26 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2023-06-26 Listed $885,000 AKMLS
• 2018-08-28 Listed $1,200,000 AKMLS
• 2012-05-03 Listed $590,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2017): $4,058 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.