1612 S Jefferson St

Ava, MO 65608

$190,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,746 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-225/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-225/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.