1612 S Jefferson St · Ava, MO 65608

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,746 sqft · Other public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1920 11 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this Charming 4 Bedroom 1.5 bath home! It has been completely updated including a New Roof, New Flooring throughout, and some New Kitchen Appliances. This house has Central heat and Air and has the perfect layout for a Family. The home is on approximately 1 acre.

Key facts

• Zoned residential
• 11 acre lot
• Built 1920

Tags

• ZONED RESIDENTIAL
• ZONED MULTI RESIDENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Block and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Privacy and barbed wire fencing; Fiberglass roof; Shed(s); Few trees on lot; Asphalt road frontage on a public maintained city street; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Window coverings and blinds; Basement with concrete floor, sump pump, interior entry, unfinished and partial
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-225/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,094 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $89,957
• Equity at exit: $158,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $263,099
• Equity at exit: $328,126

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $409/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $186,693

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Active
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $190,000 Active
4. 2025-06-13
   price $232,500
5. 2025-06-06
   price $234,000
6. 2025-05-23
   price $239,000
7. 2025-05-04
   price $244,500
8. 2025-03-13
   price $249,900
9. 2025-01-31
   price $254,500
10. 2025-01-18
    price $258,000
11. 2025-01-08
    price $263,000
12. 2024-11-14
    listed $278,000 Active
13. 2023-02-24
    soldstatus Closed 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Come take a look at this Charming 4 Bedroom 1.5 bath home! It has been completely updated including a New Roof, New Flooring throughout, and some New Kitchen Appliances. This house has Central heat and Air and has the perfect layout for a Family. The home is on approximately 1 acre.

14. 2023-01-18
    status Pending 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Come take a look at this Charming 4 Bedroom 1.5 bath home! It has been completely updated including a New Roof, New Flooring throughout, and some New Kitchen Appliances. This house has Central heat and Air and has the perfect layout for a Family. The home is on approximately 1 acre.

15. 2023-01-07
    listed $139,900 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Come take a look at this Charming 4 Bedroom 1.5 bath home! It has been completely updated including a New Roof, New Flooring throughout, and some New Kitchen Appliances. This house has Central heat and Air and has the perfect layout for a Family. The home is on approximately 1 acre.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,843 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,434/yr (+$119/mo · 350.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$409
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$866
• After-tax cash flow: $642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ava, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+35.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-21 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-24 Listed $190,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $232,500 SOMO
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $234,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $239,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-04 Price Changed $244,500 SOMO
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $249,900 SOMO
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $254,500 SOMO
• 2025-01-18 Price Changed $258,000 SOMO
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $263,000 SOMO
• 2024-11-14 Listed $278,000 SOMO
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-01-18 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-01-07 Listed $139,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $409 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.