5480 Scandia Dr

Bemus Point, NY 14712

$435,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 280 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$711
• HOA: −$94
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-1,632/mo
• Annual: $-19,581/yr
• Cap rate: 1.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.08%
• DSCR: 0.28
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (66.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (57.7% below list).
• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (66.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $435k implies a 1454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.