5480 Scandia Dr · Bemus Point, NY 14712

$435,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 280 Days on market

Built 1995 0.78 ac lot $217/sqft · 26% below area Est $584k · 26% under $94/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 5480 Scandia Drive! This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is located in a wooded private setting in the lakeside community of Sunset Bay off of Route 430. The home comes with deeded lake access and boat slip. Upon approaching the front door, you will notice a large covered wrap around front porch perfect for early morning coffee or evening reading. Entering through the front door is a welcoming front foyer with closet with 2 large bedrooms with large closets and a full bath with a skylight to the right. To the left is a large open living room area with a vaulted ceiling, large ceiling fan and a gas fireplace to warm those cosy winter nights. A large open kitchen with a large island, a well lit pantry and skylight provides a wonderful space for entertaining and gathering. To the left of the kitchen is a large formal dining room with large windows. There is a laundry area with a half bath that leads to a large attached 2 car garage with ample storage, electrical panel and HVAC closet. To the left rear of the home is a breakfast room or sitting area and a large primary bedroom with a walk in closet and a large full bath with 2 sinks. Both rooms lead to a private side rear deck perfect for evening meals and relaxing. Home has new hardwood flooring and carpeting. Property also has an adjacent lot for other projects and possibilities. Listing agent is a member of the seller LLC.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Deeded lake access
• Large open kitchen

Tags

• DEEDED LAKE ACCESS
• BOAT SLIP
• WELCOMING FRONT FOYER
• LARGE OPEN LIVING ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (66.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (57.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (66.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $435k implies a 1454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $146,741 (66.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.08%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 19.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $584,212
• List price: $435,000
• Delta: -25.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5471 Broadway Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,826 (-9%)	8mo	$325,555	$178	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $133,061
• Equity at exit: $391,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $473,725
• Equity at exit: $845,109

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 19.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,355/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-1,632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,906

Max offer price $146,741

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $435,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $435,000 Active 274 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $435,000 Active 273 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $435,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $435,000 Active 265 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $435,000 Active 264 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $435,000 Active 263 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,000 Active 262 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 261 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $435,000 Active 260 DOM
17. 2026-03-09
    price $435,000 1398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1398 chars)

    Welcome to 5480 Scandia Drive! This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is located in a wooded private setting in the lakeside community of Sunset Bay off of Route 430. The home comes with deeded lake access and boat slip. Upon approaching the front door, you will notice a large covered wrap around front porch perfect for early morning coffee or evening reading. Entering through the front door is a welcoming front foyer with closet with 2 large bedrooms with large closets and a full bath with a skylight to the right. To the left is a large open living room area with a vaulted ceiling, large ceiling fan and a gas fireplace to warm those cosy winter nights. A large open kitchen with a large island, a well lit pantry and skylight provides a wonderful space for entertaining and gathering. To the left of the kitchen is a large formal dining room with large windows. There is a laundry area with a half bath that leads to a large attached 2 car garage with ample storage, electrical panel and HVAC closet. To the left rear of the home is a breakfast room or sitting area and a large primary bedroom with a walk in closet and a large full bath with 2 sinks. Both rooms lead to a private side rear deck perfect for evening meals and relaxing. Home has new hardwood flooring and carpeting. Property also has an adjacent lot for other projects and possibilities. Listing agent is a member of the seller LLC.

18. 2025-10-24
    price $459,000 1398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1398 chars)

    Welcome to 5480 Scandia Drive! This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is located in a wooded private setting in the lakeside community of Sunset Bay off of Route 430. The home comes with deeded lake access and boat slip. Upon approaching the front door, you will notice a large covered wrap around front porch perfect for early morning coffee or evening reading. Entering through the front door is a welcoming front foyer with closet with 2 large bedrooms with large closets and a full bath with a skylight to the right. To the left is a large open living room area with a vaulted ceiling, large ceiling fan and a gas fireplace to warm those cosy winter nights. A large open kitchen with a large island, a well lit pantry and skylight provides a wonderful space for entertaining and gathering. To the left of the kitchen is a large formal dining room with large windows. There is a laundry area with a half bath that leads to a large attached 2 car garage with ample storage, electrical panel and HVAC closet. To the left rear of the home is a breakfast room or sitting area and a large primary bedroom with a walk in closet and a large full bath with 2 sinks. Both rooms lead to a private side rear deck perfect for evening meals and relaxing. Home has new hardwood flooring and carpeting. Property also has an adjacent lot for other projects and possibilities. Listing agent is a member of the seller LLC.

19. 2025-09-12
    listed $479,000 Active 1398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1398 chars)

    Welcome to 5480 Scandia Drive! This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is located in a wooded private setting in the lakeside community of Sunset Bay off of Route 430. The home comes with deeded lake access and boat slip. Upon approaching the front door, you will notice a large covered wrap around front porch perfect for early morning coffee or evening reading. Entering through the front door is a welcoming front foyer with closet with 2 large bedrooms with large closets and a full bath with a skylight to the right. To the left is a large open living room area with a vaulted ceiling, large ceiling fan and a gas fireplace to warm those cosy winter nights. A large open kitchen with a large island, a well lit pantry and skylight provides a wonderful space for entertaining and gathering. To the left of the kitchen is a large formal dining room with large windows. There is a laundry area with a half bath that leads to a large attached 2 car garage with ample storage, electrical panel and HVAC closet. To the left rear of the home is a breakfast room or sitting area and a large primary bedroom with a walk in closet and a large full bath with 2 sinks. Both rooms lead to a private side rear deck perfect for evening meals and relaxing. Home has new hardwood flooring and carpeting. Property also has an adjacent lot for other projects and possibilities. Listing agent is a member of the seller LLC.

20. 2025-02-21
    historical
21. 2024-11-14
    listed $479,000 Active
22. 1995-04-27
    soldstatus $28,000
23. 1992-11-18
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,355 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,853 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$42/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$6,355
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$28,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,750
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bemus Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #9687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2536.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $435,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $459,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $479,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-02-21 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-11-14 Listed $479,000 UNYREIS
• 1995-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,355 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.