21521 Leitersburg Smithsburg Rd

Leitersburg, MD 21742

$175,000B-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · Built 1875 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $603/mo
• Annual: $7,234/yr
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.76%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#407 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Old Forge Elementary (math 27% / reading 12%, grade F, #353 of 860 statewide, top 45%, 327 students, 35% FRL); Smithsburg Middle (math 13% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 225 statewide, top 47%, 534 students, 47% FRL); Smithsburg High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #50 of 222 statewide, top 23%, 717 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $175k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.