21521 Leitersburg Smithsburg Rd · Leitersburg, MD 21742

$175,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1875 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1875

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#407 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Old Forge Elementary (math 27% / reading 12%, grade F, #353 of 860 statewide, top 45%, 327 students, 35% FRL); Smithsburg Middle (math 13% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 225 statewide, top 47%, 534 students, 47% FRL); Smithsburg High (math 52% / reading 82%, grade B, #50 of 222 statewide, top 23%, 717 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $175k implies a 202% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.76%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $702,112
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21611 Leitersburg Smithsburg Rd	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (-14%)	1mo	$605,000	$296	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $13,211
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $74,367
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21742

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $175,000
3. 2026-03-11
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2026-02-03
   historical $200,000
5. 2016-11-15
   soldstatus $58,000
6. 2016-11-08
   soldstatus $58,000 Sold 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

7. 2016-11-08
   soldstatus $58,000 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

8. 2016-10-31
   status Contract 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

9. 2016-09-19
   price $59,900 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

10. 2016-08-21
    price $64,900 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

11. 2016-07-22
    listed $74,900 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

12. 2016-07-22
    listed $59,900 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Small town country living with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath colonial. Some renovations have been completed. Nice size fenced back yard with garage and shed.

13. 2016-07-15
    historical Withdrawn
14. 2016-07-15
    historical
15. 2016-06-27
    price
16. 2016-06-23
    status Active
17. 2016-06-21
    historical Expired
18. 2016-04-20
    price
19. 2016-04-13
    status Active
20. 2016-03-24
    status Contract
21. 2016-02-24
    price
22. 2016-01-14
    price
23. 2015-12-18
    listed Active
24. 2015-12-18
    listed $74,900
25. 2015-06-04
    historical
26. 2015-02-27
    listed $125,000
27. 2015-02-27
    listed
28. 2015-02-27
    historical Withdrawn
29. 2015-02-27
    historical
30. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $49,900
31. 1987-11-04
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $4,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $6,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtion County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400660
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $54,784
• Composite: 22.87/100
• National rank: #8007
• State rank: #13 of 24 in MD

Livability — Leitersburg

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #22724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leitersburg, MD
• County: Washington County · 98,861 people
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 34,069
• Household income: $86,288
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 151,614 people
• By 2030: 151,455 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 150,097 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 148,193 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 146,581 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 138,025 · -9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.3% · R 60.4% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+20.9 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.60%
• Current HPI: 235.6784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+872.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Coming Soon $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-08 Sold (MLS) $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-08 Sold (MLS) $58,000 MRIS
• 2016-10-31 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-09-19 Price Changed $59,900 MRIS
• 2016-08-21 Price Changed $64,900 MRIS
• 2016-07-22 Listed $74,900 MRIS
• 2016-07-22 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-06-27 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-06-23 Relisted — MRIS
• 2016-06-21 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-04-20 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-04-13 Relisted — MRIS
• 2016-03-24 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-02-24 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-01-14 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-12-18 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-12-18 Listed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-06-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-02-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-02-27 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-02-27 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1987-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.