39 Church Ln

Aquebogue, NY 11901

$739,999B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $29,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,881
• Tax + insurance: −$988
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $18,042/mo
• Annual: $216,500/yr
• Cap rate: 35.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.49%
• DSCR: 5.65
• 1% rule: 3.92%
• Cash to close: $207,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $740k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($216k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $740k).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($651k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $651k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $740k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $207k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.