39 Church Ln · Aquebogue, NY 11901

$739,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1955 5.28 ac lot $503/sqft · 7% below area Est $782k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This classic cape farm house is 1,450 square feet that features two bedrooms downstairs, one full bathroom, a large country kitchen, dining room, and a three- season sunroom. The upstairs has one large bedroom two large storage areas and three closets and an entrance loft for an office or study. The property 23,000 square feet with a large 600 square foot three car garage and a 160 square foot out building.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Out building
• Entrance loft

Tags

• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• THREE SEASON SUNROOM
• LARGE STORAGE AREAS
• ENTRANCE LOFT
• OUT BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $740k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($216k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $740k).
• Recommended offer: $651k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $207k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($651k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $740k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $651,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 104.49%
• DSCR: 5.65
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $781,886
• List price: $739,999
• Delta: -5.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Church Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-2%)	11mo	$625,000	$434	50
224 Church Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+12%)	11mo	$615,000	$373	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $1,029,456
• Equity at exit: $110,336

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.47×
• Total profit: $2,377,222
• Equity at exit: $63,982

Cash invested: $207,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,881
• Tax from tax record: −$679 /mo · $8,153/yr
• Insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $18,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,162

Max offer price $739,999

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18,461	-5% $18,251	+0% $18,042	+5% $17,832	+10% $17,623
Rent	-10% $15,751	-5% $16,896	+0% $18,042	+5% $19,187	+10% $20,333
Rate	-1.0pp $18,414	-0.5pp $18,230	base $18,042	+0.5pp $17,850	+1.0pp $17,655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $185,000
• Closing costs: $22,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Promenade Dr Aquebogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1825	$29,000	$15.89	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $739,999 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $739,999 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $739,999 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $739,999 Active 185 DOM
5. 2025-11-27
   listed $739,999 Active 411-char remark

   Show marketing remark (411 chars)

   This classic cape farm house is 1,450 square feet that features two bedrooms downstairs, one full bathroom, a large country kitchen, dining room, and a three- season sunroom. The upstairs has one large bedroom two large storage areas and three closets and an entrance loft for an office or study. The property 23,000 square feet with a large 600 square foot three car garage and a 160 square foot out building.

6. 2003-06-10
   soldstatus $265,000
7. 2003-06-10
   soldstatus $265,000
8. 1998-01-26
   soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,153 · $679/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,329 · $861/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,177/yr (+$181/mo · 26.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $348,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,451
• − Property taxes: −$8,153
• − Insurance: −$3,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,840
• − Management: −$27,840
• − Depreciation: −$21,527
• Taxable income: $217,488
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$52,197
• After-tax cash flow: $164,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+560.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-27 Listed $739,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,153 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.