5412 Tully Rd

Modesto, CA 95356

$254,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1980 · Land · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $88/mo
• Annual: $1,054/yr
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $71,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (6.9% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $237k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Stanislaus Union Elementary (urban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #344 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.