5412 Tully Rd · Modesto, CA 95356

$254,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Land public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1980 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,760 square feet of comfortable living space in desirable North Modesto. Built in 1980, this property features an open and functional floor plan with generous living areas, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The home offers a well-appointed kitchen, ample storage, and a large primary suite with private bath. Situated on a sizable lot, the backyard provides plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or future customization. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and commuter routes, this property presents an excellent opportunity for homeowners and investors alike. Don't miss your chan

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private bath
• Large primary suite

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• SIZABLE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: 220-volt electric service; Well water; Septic system; No irrigation
• Home design: Manufactured home - detached; Built in 1980
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot has other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/family combo layout
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room; Kitchen and family room combined; Dining and living area combined; Single-story
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Stanislaus Union Elementary (urban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #344 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,998 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,539
• Equity at exit: $37,947

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-56,471
• Equity at exit: $22,005

Cash invested: $71,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,259

Max offer price $254,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,625
• Closing costs: $7,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4021 Rancho Mesa Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	3.0	2373	$6,150	$2.59	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $254,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,256
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$7,404
• Taxable loss: −$3,168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$760
• After-tax cash flow: $1,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanislaus Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637950
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,731
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #7286
• State rank: #344 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $347,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,125 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.