555 Moffat Blvd #61

Manteca, CA 95336

$48,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $1,092/mo
• Annual: $13,098/yr
• Cap rate: 33.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.46%
• DSCR: 5.34
• 1% rule: 3.75%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (648 students, 65% FRL); Manteca High (math 13% / reading 50%, grade F, #696 of 1,170 statewide, top 60%, 1,811 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.