555 Moffat Blvd #61 · Manteca, CA 95336

$48,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition $96/sqft · 14% above area Est $42k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Moffat Blvd Spc 61a charming tiny home designed for minimalist, ​ eco-friendly, and affordable living. This cozy residence​ features 1 bedroom, 1 full bath, and a fully functional kitchen, ​ all thoughtfully arranged to maximize space and comfort. ​ Perfect for anyone seeking a simple, stress-free lifestyle, ​ this adorable home offers a peaceful​ retreat where you can truly relax and enjoy life's essentials. ​ If you're ready to embrace the beauty of efficient living​ without sacrificing comfort, this is the perfect place to call home. ​

Key facts

• Built 1991
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $840 (see listing for details)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water and other water sources; Other electric service; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Single wide; Built in 1991
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting; Make: SEAVW
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Free standing gas oven; Laminate counters; Living room with unspecified additional features; Dining area with unspecified additional features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,560 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.46%
• DSCR: 5.34
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,156
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: 13.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $56,488
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.81×
• Total profit: $118,412
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $1,092

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,108	+0% $1,092	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,058
Rent	-10% $949	-5% $1,020	+0% $1,092	+5% $1,163	+10% $1,234
Rate	-1.0pp $1,116	-0.5pp $1,104	base $1,092	+0.5pp $1,079	+1.0pp $1,066

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,975	$2.02	3d	8	0.77mi
222 Elm Ave Unit B Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	20d	1	0.88mi
420 N Maple Ave Unit 13 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,395	$2.33	24d	1	0.88mi
1005 E Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,095	$2.08	0d	6	0.89mi
529 N Lincoln Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	734	$1,900	$2.59	44d	1	0.95mi
556 N Lincoln Ave Unit 12 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	44d	1	0.97mi
366 E Edison St Unit 12 Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	4d	1	0.99mi
1224 Schirra Ct Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	528	$1,750	$3.31	22d	1	1.03mi
1360 Lakeside Ave Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,180	$2.16	3d	3	1.05mi
221 E Edison St Unit 8 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,475	$2.46	15d	1	1.06mi
221 E Edison St Unit 2 Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,475	$2.46	4d	1	1.06mi
717 W Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	903	$2,198	$2.43	0d	6	1.08mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,900	$3.04	3d	1	1.35mi
1155 W Center St Manteca, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	770	$1,699	$2.21	3d	11	1.43mi
150 Pestana Ave Apt Home Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	44d	1	1.43mi
207 S Union Rd Manteca, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,745	$2.91	11d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $48,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $13,115
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,147
• After-tax cash flow: $9,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and cleaning gutters would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B