128 Union Hill Dr

Nocatee, FL 32081

$570,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax + insurance: −$921
• HOA: −$79
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-1,849/mo
• Annual: $-22,194/yr
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.91%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $159,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $570k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (57.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (52.5% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $410k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.