128 Union Hill Dr · Nocatee, FL 32081

$570,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2021 8,712 sqft lot $281/sqft · 18% below area Est $692k · 18% under $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE! Located in the heart of Pioneer Village in Nocatee, this move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,026 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a desirable corner lot with preserve views, partial pond views, and golf cart-friendly access to nearby amenities, parks, and trails. A welcoming front porch overlooks the preserve across the street, creating a private, peaceful setting rarely found at this price. Inside, the open-concept floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen features a large center island, gas range, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, abundant cabinetry, and a gathering space that naturally becomes the heart of the home. Recent improvements and upgrades include plantation shutters, new carpet, an extended patio, and a screened lanai designed for year-round Florida living. The backyard offers a relaxing outdoor setting with partial pond views, added privacy from mature hedging, and space to create your own backyard retreat. One of the standout features is the oversized driveway, providing exceptional parking space for guests, something difficult to find in many homes throughout the community. Conveniently located approximately 0.6 miles by walking path to Crosswater Park, residents enjoy easy access to a community pool, playground, pickleball courts, lap pool, Splash Park, Spray Park, fitness amenities, shopping, dining, and miles of scenic trails. The beach is also just a short drive away. Zoned for the new K-8 school opening in August 2026, enhancing future desirability and long-term appeal in one of Northeast Florida's most sought-after master-planned communities.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (57.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (52.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $410k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,279 (57.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.91%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $691,995
• List price: $570,000
• Delta: -17.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
351 Union Hill Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,948 (-4%)	4mo	$575,000	$295	81
106 Shadow Ridge Trl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,991 (-2%)	7mo	$600,000	$301	63
91 Andesite Trl	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (+11%)	6mo	$660,000	$293	60
453 Vista Lake Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,757 (-13%)	13mo	$530,000	$302	51
158 Bonita Vista Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,229 (+10%)	11mo	$715,000	$321	50
50 Vista Lake Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-11%)	11mo	$520,000	$287	50
244 Palm Island Way	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,230 (+10%)	7mo	$700,000	$314	49
470 Vista Lake Cir	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,308 (+14%)	11mo	$620,000	$269	45
328 Sweet Pine Trl	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (-8%)	7mo	$564,500	$304	43
132 Seabrook Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,292 (+13%)	11mo	$689,000	$301	39
179 Seabrook Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,321 (+15%)	9mo	$925,000	$399	29
279 Constitution Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,305 (+14%)	16mo	$725,000	$315	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-152,374
• Equity at exit: $151,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-243,404
• Equity at exit: $171,684

Cash invested: $159,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$684 /mo · $8,204/yr
• Insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-1,849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,050

Max offer price $243,279

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,500
• Closing costs: $17,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Curved Bay Trl Ponte Vedra, FL	2.0	2.0	1505	$3,000	$1.99	17d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $570,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $570,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $570,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $570,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $570,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $570,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $570,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $570,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $570,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $570,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $570,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $570,000 1765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Located in the heart of Pioneer Village in Nocatee, this move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,026 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a desirable corner lot with preserve views, partial pond views, and golf cart-friendly access to nearby amenities, parks, and trails. A welcoming front porch overlooks the preserve across the street, creating a private, peaceful setting rarely found at this price. Inside, the open-concept floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen features a large center island, gas range, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, abundant cabinetry, and a gathering space that naturally becomes the heart of the home. Recent improvements and upgrades include plantation shutters, new carpet, an extended patio, and a screened lanai designed for year-round Florida living. The backyard offers a relaxing outdoor setting with partial pond views, added privacy from mature hedging, and space to create your own backyard retreat. One of the standout features is the oversized driveway, providing exceptional parking space for guests, something difficult to find in many homes throughout the community. Conveniently located approximately 0.6 miles by walking path to Crosswater Park, residents enjoy easy access to a community pool, playground, pickleball courts, lap pool, Splash Park, Spray Park, fitness amenities, shopping, dining, and miles of scenic trails. The beach is also just a short drive away. Zoned for the new K-8 school opening in August 2026, enhancing future desirability and long-term appeal in one of Northeast Florida's most sought-after master-planned communities.

15. 2026-04-25
    listed $575,000 Active 1765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

    NEW PRICE! Located in the heart of Pioneer Village in Nocatee, this move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2,026 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a desirable corner lot with preserve views, partial pond views, and golf cart-friendly access to nearby amenities, parks, and trails. A welcoming front porch overlooks the preserve across the street, creating a private, peaceful setting rarely found at this price. Inside, the open-concept floor plan seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the home ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen features a large center island, gas range, stainless steel appliances, tile backsplash, abundant cabinetry, and a gathering space that naturally becomes the heart of the home. Recent improvements and upgrades include plantation shutters, new carpet, an extended patio, and a screened lanai designed for year-round Florida living. The backyard offers a relaxing outdoor setting with partial pond views, added privacy from mature hedging, and space to create your own backyard retreat. One of the standout features is the oversized driveway, providing exceptional parking space for guests, something difficult to find in many homes throughout the community. Conveniently located approximately 0.6 miles by walking path to Crosswater Park, residents enjoy easy access to a community pool, playground, pickleball courts, lap pool, Splash Park, Spray Park, fitness amenities, shopping, dining, and miles of scenic trails. The beach is also just a short drive away. Zoned for the new K-8 school opening in August 2026, enhancing future desirability and long-term appeal in one of Northeast Florida's most sought-after master-planned communities.

16. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus $409,500 Sold
17. 2020-11-02
    listed $409,500
18. 2020-11-02
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,204 · $684/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,204 · $684/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,929
• − Property taxes: −$8,204
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,600
• − Management: −$2,600
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$16,582
• Taxable loss: −$33,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $570,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $575,000 realMLS
• 2021-03-30 Sold (MLS) $409,500 realMLS
• 2020-11-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2020-11-02 Listed $409,500 realMLS

Property tax history

+37.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,204 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.