26835 Concord Dawn Dr

Fulshear, TX 77406

$414,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,263 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$692
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-587/mo
• Annual: $-7,048/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.