26835 Concord Dawn Dr · Fulshear, TX 77406

$414,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 7,087 sqft lot $183/sqft · 17% below area Est $500k · 17% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wingate floor plan is an elegant two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. This layout is perfectly suited for families seeking ample space and functionality. The first floor hosts an open-concept family room that seamlessly connects to the dining area and a modern kitchen, creating the ideal space for gatherings. A bedroom and full bathroom on the main level offer privacy for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite boasts a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms, a shared bathroom, and a versatile loft provide plenty of room for relaxation, work, or play. The two-car garage and additional storage spaces ensure convenience and organization. The Wingate floorplan combines thoughtful design with a warm and inviting atmosphere, making it a standout choice for any lifestyle. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Wingate floor plan
• Private retreat

Tags

• WINGATE FLOOR PLAN
• CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GAME ROOM
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1222 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $296,654 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $500,400
• List price: $414,990
• Delta: -17.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26714 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+6%)	0mo	$458,900	$192	86
26827 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+6%)	1mo	$453,900	$190	85
26815 Brilliant Brook Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+11%)	0mo	$474,900	$190	76
10311 Melida Dawn Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,263 (0%)	2mo	$409,990	$181	76
26822 Chandrila Vista Ct	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (+3%)	2mo	$399,900	$172	65
26419 Polaris Rise Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+5%)	1mo	$415,000	$175	61
10722 Aquila Star Dr	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+9%)	2mo	$439,520	$178	60
10803 Aquila Star Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+9%)	2mo	$414,731	$168	60
26303 Polaris Rise Ln	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,336 (+3%)	1mo	$409,000	$175	57
26735 Azalea Sky Dr	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+15%)	2mo	$464,658	$179	53
10802 Aquila Star Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+15%)	1mo	$479,762	$185	50
10819 Aquila Star Dr	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,600 (+15%)	1mo	$449,896	$173	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-113,264
• Equity at exit: $61,876

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-180,056
• Equity at exit: $35,881

Cash invested: $116,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1222
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,710

Max offer price $330,002

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,748
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	43d	1	0.67mi
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	43d	1	0.73mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	43d	1	1.38mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,386	$0.98	5d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $414,990 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $414,990 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $414,990 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $414,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $414,990 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $414,990 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $414,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $414,990 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $414,990 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $414,990 1053-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

    The Wingate floor plan is an elegant two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. This layout is perfectly suited for families seeking ample space and functionality. The first floor hosts an open-concept family room that seamlessly connects to the dining area and a modern kitchen, creating the ideal space for gatherings. A bedroom and full bathroom on the main level offer privacy for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite boasts a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms, a shared bathroom, and a versatile loft provide plenty of room for relaxation, work, or play. The two-car garage and additional storage spaces ensure convenience and organization. The Wingate floorplan combines thoughtful design with a warm and inviting atmosphere, making it a standout choice for any lifestyle. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

11. 2026-05-13
    price $414,990 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Spacious Wingate floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, offering 2,263 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This versatile layout includes 2 bedrooms down and 2 bedrooms up, providing flexibility for multi-generational living or guest accommodations. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space for both everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a generously sized game room offers additional space for relaxing or hosting. The primary suite serves as a private retreat, while the secondary bedrooms are well-proportioned for comfort and functionality. Situated on a corner homesite, this property offers added space, enhanced curb appeal, and additional privacy. Located in the sought-after Candela community, residents enjoy access to resort-style amenities, scenic walking trails, and convenient proximity to major highways, shopping, and dining.

12. 2026-04-29
    price $419,990 1053-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

    The Wingate floor plan is an elegant two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. This layout is perfectly suited for families seeking ample space and functionality. The first floor hosts an open-concept family room that seamlessly connects to the dining area and a modern kitchen, creating the ideal space for gatherings. A bedroom and full bathroom on the main level offer privacy for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite boasts a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms, a shared bathroom, and a versatile loft provide plenty of room for relaxation, work, or play. The two-car garage and additional storage spaces ensure convenience and organization. The Wingate floorplan combines thoughtful design with a warm and inviting atmosphere, making it a standout choice for any lifestyle. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

13. 2026-04-28
    price $419,990 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Spacious Wingate floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, offering 2,263 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This versatile layout includes 2 bedrooms down and 2 bedrooms up, providing flexibility for multi-generational living or guest accommodations. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space for both everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a generously sized game room offers additional space for relaxing or hosting. The primary suite serves as a private retreat, while the secondary bedrooms are well-proportioned for comfort and functionality. Situated on a corner homesite, this property offers added space, enhanced curb appeal, and additional privacy. Located in the sought-after Candela community, residents enjoy access to resort-style amenities, scenic walking trails, and convenient proximity to major highways, shopping, and dining.

14. 2026-04-17
    listed $431,712 Active 967-char remark

    Show marketing remark (967 chars)

    Spacious Wingate floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, offering 2,263 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This versatile layout includes 2 bedrooms down and 2 bedrooms up, providing flexibility for multi-generational living or guest accommodations. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space for both everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a generously sized game room offers additional space for relaxing or hosting. The primary suite serves as a private retreat, while the secondary bedrooms are well-proportioned for comfort and functionality. Situated on a corner homesite, this property offers added space, enhanced curb appeal, and additional privacy. Located in the sought-after Candela community, residents enjoy access to resort-style amenities, scenic walking trails, and convenient proximity to major highways, shopping, and dining.

15. 2026-03-14
    listed $431,712 Active 1053-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1053 chars)

    The Wingate floor plan is an elegant two-story home designed for versatility and comfort, featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. This layout is perfectly suited for families seeking ample space and functionality. The first floor hosts an open-concept family room that seamlessly connects to the dining area and a modern kitchen, creating the ideal space for gatherings. A bedroom and full bathroom on the main level offer privacy for guests or multi-generational living. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite boasts a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms, a shared bathroom, and a versatile loft provide plenty of room for relaxation, work, or play. The two-car garage and additional storage spaces ensure convenience and organization. The Wingate floorplan combines thoughtful design with a warm and inviting atmosphere, making it a standout choice for any lifestyle. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,848
• − Management: −$2,848
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$12,072
• Taxable loss: −$14,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $414,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $414,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $419,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $431,712 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $431,712 Zillow