619 E Mckinley St

Belleville, IL 62220

$129,900D

None bd · 4.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,348/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-290/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a ?-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-290/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (3.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?