551 Spur Dr N

North Bay Shore, NY 11706

$599,999C+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · Built 1972 · MultiFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$904
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,569
• Net cashflow: $1,850/mo
• Annual: $22,205/yr
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.22%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $600k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#678 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brentwood Union Free School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #542 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Park Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 711 students, 87% FRL); North Middle School (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #576 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 1,131 students, 86% FRL); Brentwood High School (math 83% / reading 67%, grade A-, #631 of 1,100 statewide, top 58%, 4,641 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brentwood Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $600k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.5% in North Bay Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,470/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1516% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.