551 Spur Dr N · North Bay Shore, NY 11706

$599,999

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1972 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Incredible Opportunity to Create Your Dream Home! This super spacious home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. With just a little sprucing up, this property can truly shine! Featuring 6 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, there’s plenty of room for large group, guests, or flexible living arrangements. The upper level offers a bright living room, formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen perfect for gatherings and everyday living. The lower level features an additional living room/den plus a bonus room. If you’ve been searching for a home with space, versatility, and endless possibilities, this is the one you won’t want to miss!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: NYSEG electric service; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Trash collection (public); Cable available; Phone available; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling; Electric heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Two levels; 11 total rooms; No basement; No attic

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $600k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.5% in North Bay Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#678 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brentwood Union Free School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #542 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Park Elementary School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 711 students, 87% FRL); North Middle School (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #576 of 729 statewide, top 79%, 1,131 students, 86% FRL); Brentwood High School (math 83% / reading 67%, grade A-, #631 of 1,100 statewide, top 58%, 4,641 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brentwood Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,470/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1516% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $600k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $599,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.22%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $15,976
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $146,820
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11706

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$654 /mo · $7,853/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,569
• Net cashflow: $1,850

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,128

Max offer price $599,999

Occupancy floor 70%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$7,470
Total (3 units)			$7,470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $599,999 Active
2. 2003-04-23
   soldstatus $265,000
3. 1989-07-17
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,853 · $654/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,997 · $750/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,143/yr (+$95/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$7,853
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,171
• − Management: −$7,171
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable income: $13,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,211
• After-tax cash flow: $18,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3605280
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $71,840
• Composite: 32.44/100
• National rank: #5722
• State rank: #542 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bay Shore

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #678
• US rank: #12701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bay Shore, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,976
• Household income: $119,603
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 33% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.52%
• Current HPI: 311.4019
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+361.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,853 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.