18707 Sunset Horizon Dr

Todd Mission, TX 77447

$233,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,242
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-740/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $66,304

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.