411 S Cedar St

Van Horn, TX 79855

$129,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-371/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-371/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,070 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Culberson County-Allamoore ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,070 of 1,141 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Culberson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Culberson County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.