411 S Cedar St · Van Horn, TX 79855

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2022 7,013 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect small house for a single person or young couple. Ready for your touch. Has 2 storage units on lot, one that can be finished out and used as an ADU. Cute little back yard with a covered patio. Lots of potential. Cheap utilities and taxes! Some furniture can convey. MAKE AND OFFER!! OWNER IS MOTIVATED!!

Key facts

• Back yard
• Covered patio
• 7,013 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• BACK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Open parking with parking pad; Circular driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built with portion of framing
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Corner lot; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Water heater included; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-371/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,070 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Culberson County-Allamoore ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,070 of 1,141 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Culberson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Culberson County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,970 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $55,343
• Equity at exit: $102,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $162,152
• Equity at exit: $208,131

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79855

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $265/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $959

Max offer price $124,442

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $6	+0% $-31	+5% $-216	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-67	+0% $-31	+5% $5	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $2	base $-31	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $129,900 Active
19. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus
20. 2021-11-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $265 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,112/yr (+$176/mo · 795.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥100°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$265
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$648
• After-tax cash flow: $277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Culberson County-Allamoore ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,898
• Composite: 24.22/100
• National rank: #13136
• State rank: #1070 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Van Horn

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1070
• US rank: #18971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Horn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,159

Population outlook (Culberson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,952 people
• By 2030: 1,793 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 1,518 · -22.2%
• By 2050: 1,279 · -34.5%
• By 2075: 861 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 603 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 44% White 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 64% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Culberson

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 40.9% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: D+2.7 2016: D+22.8 2012: D+31.1 2008: D+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Current HPI: 119.7418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $129,900 ODMLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $265 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.