333 Circlewood Dr

Paradise, CA 95969

$309,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,003 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-468/mo
• Annual: $-5,620/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A-, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $309k implies a 713% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.