8294 Swamp Rd

Cattaraugus, NY 14719

$135,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 816 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-220/mo
• Annual: $-2,642/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (31.9% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#973 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #460 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 334 students, 55% FRL); Cattaraugus-Little Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 255 students, 53% FRL); Cattaraugus-Little Valley High School (math 92%, 251 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.