8294 Swamp Rd · Cattaraugus, NY 14719

$135,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2003 1.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable Ranch is situated on 1.6 acres of land in the heart of farm country. The house features 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and an attached garage. In the back of the garage, you will find a separate entertainment room with a wood stove for heat that is set up to host the weekend football game or can be easily turned into your home gym. The furnace was installed within the last few years and is powered by natural gas. The outside features a u-shaped concrete driveway and a wrap around deck. The large yard is dotted with multiple trees, a section that is fenced in for the pets and has 2 sheds to house all of your yard work equipment.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Fenced in section
• Multiple trees

Tags

• SEPARATE ENTERTAINMENT ROOM
• WOOD STOVE
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• FENCED IN SECTION
• MULTIPLE TREES
• 2 SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (28.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#973 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #460 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 334 students, 55% FRL); Cattaraugus-Little Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 255 students, 53% FRL); Cattaraugus-Little Valley High School (math 92%, 251 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $91,953 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $59,523
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $186,358
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14719

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,189/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $96,103

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-144	-5% $-182	+0% $-220	+5% $-258	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-257	+0% $-220	+5% $-184	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-186	base $-220	+0.5pp $-255	+1.0pp $-291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-04-09
   price $150,000 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This adorable Ranch is situated on 1.6 acres of land in the heart of farm country. The house features 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and an attached garage. In the back of the garage, you will find a separate entertainment room with a wood stove for heat that is set up to host the weekend football game or can be easily turned into your home gym. The furnace was installed within the last few years and is powered by natural gas. The outside features a u-shaped concrete driveway and a wrap around deck. The large yard is dotted with multiple trees, a section that is fenced in for the pets and has 2 sheds to house all of your yard work equipment.

7. 2026-03-17
   price $155,000 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This adorable Ranch is situated on 1.6 acres of land in the heart of farm country. The house features 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and an attached garage. In the back of the garage, you will find a separate entertainment room with a wood stove for heat that is set up to host the weekend football game or can be easily turned into your home gym. The furnace was installed within the last few years and is powered by natural gas. The outside features a u-shaped concrete driveway and a wrap around deck. The large yard is dotted with multiple trees, a section that is fenced in for the pets and has 2 sheds to house all of your yard work equipment.

8. 2026-02-18
   price $165,000 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This adorable Ranch is situated on 1.6 acres of land in the heart of farm country. The house features 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and an attached garage. In the back of the garage, you will find a separate entertainment room with a wood stove for heat that is set up to host the weekend football game or can be easily turned into your home gym. The furnace was installed within the last few years and is powered by natural gas. The outside features a u-shaped concrete driveway and a wrap around deck. The large yard is dotted with multiple trees, a section that is fenced in for the pets and has 2 sheds to house all of your yard work equipment.

9. 2026-01-19
   listed $170,000 Active 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   This adorable Ranch is situated on 1.6 acres of land in the heart of farm country. The house features 4 bedrooms, 1.5 baths and an attached garage. In the back of the garage, you will find a separate entertainment room with a wood stove for heat that is set up to host the weekend football game or can be easily turned into your home gym. The furnace was installed within the last few years and is powered by natural gas. The outside features a u-shaped concrete driveway and a wrap around deck. The large yard is dotted with multiple trees, a section that is fenced in for the pets and has 2 sheds to house all of your yard work equipment.

10. 2013-03-08
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,189 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,235 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,189
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$5,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cattaraugus-Little Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600024
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,623
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4159
• State rank: #460 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cattaraugus

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #973
• US rank: #19013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,334

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.94%
• Current HPI: 331.9433
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $150,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-03-08 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,189 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.