421 Stormville Mountain Rd

Shorehaven, NY 12582

$269,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 1770 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$835
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $25/mo
• Annual: $302/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($302/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Elementary School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 394 students, 29% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 17% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1770 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.2% in Shorehaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1770 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.