421 Stormville Mountain Rd · Shorehaven, NY 12582

$269,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1770 1.30 ac lot Est $394k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on a perfect, park like lot in the highly sought after portion of East Fishkill with Carmel Schools is this turn of the century farmhouse, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, dining room, living room, large eat in kitchen, home office as well as a laundry room located on the main floor. Additionally, find an enormous 25 x 30 detached garage, perfect for the car enthusiast with the ability to store 6+ cars or for a home workshop. This is the ideal opportunity for an investor/flipper or someone looking to transform this historical house into their dream home. A rare opportunity in today's market to purchase a property that has tremendous upside at a discounted price with the abili

Key facts

• Park like lot
• Large eat in kitchen
• Detached garage

Tags

• PARK LIKE LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• HOME OFFICE
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total parking for 8 vehicles; Detached oversized garage with 6 garage spaces; Off-street parking and parking lot
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Mailbox; Fenced yard; Level, private lot; Additional parcel(s) included

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Formal dining room; Open kitchen; Storage space; Washer/dryer hookup; Home office; Two levels; Full unfinished basement with Bilco doors, walk-out access and storage space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup and gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($302/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.2% in Shorehaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kent Elementary School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 394 students, 29% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 17% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1770 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $269,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1770 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Candlewood Ct	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+4%)	17mo	$410,000	$256	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,852
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-33,242
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12582

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$723 /mo · $8,675/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,849

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $269,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,675 · $723/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,675 · $723/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$8,675
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,766
• − Management: −$2,766
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$949
• After-tax cash flow: $1,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shorehaven

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,157

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 17% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.61%
• Current HPI: 223.0403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $269,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-22 Price Changed $229,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-22 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-31 Listed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Listed $280,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-05 Listed $259,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-30 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-05-04 Listed — HGMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,675 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.