14431 N Sky Trl

Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$369,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 208 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,938
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$219
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-50/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $103,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-50/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $322k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $370k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.