14431 N Sky Trl · Oro Valley, AZ 85755

$369,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 208 Days on market

Built 1989 8,276 sqft lot $298/sqft · at area comps Est $373k · at est. $219/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home located in Sun City, which is a very desirable active adult community. Come and enjoy the wonderful and many amenities that this community has to offer. Golf, swimming pools, pickleball, tennis, bocce ball courts, aquatic & fitness center, racquet ball court, miniature golf, numerous clubs, restaurant, endless amenities and activities, the lists goes on and on. This home sits on a large lot. Newly painted, new blinds, granite countertops, tile flooring in main living areas with carpet in bedrooms only. Split 2 bedroom floor plan. New guest bathroom vanity. Newer washer & dryer stay. Buyer to pay one time HOA CAP Fee $3,945.00. HOA transfer fee $370

Key facts

• Tennis
• Golf
• Swimming pools

Tags

• ACTIVE ADULT COMMUNITY
• GOLF
• SWIMMING POOLS
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS
• BOCCE BALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-50/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Oro Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#2 in AZ, #1,339 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, cost of living D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $370k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,797 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,876
• List price: $369,500
• Delta: -0.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14411 N Sky Trl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,304 (+5%)	5mo	$373,000	$286	86
868 E Grass Meadow Pl	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,221 (-1%)	3mo	$335,000	$274	77
858 E Crown Ridge Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,304 (+5%)	3mo	$385,000	$295	72
14571 N Line Post Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,304 (+5%)	4mo	$399,000	$306	68
14257 N Greenspun Pl	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,371 (+11%)	4mo	$298,000	$217	66
14561 N Sky Trl	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,418 (+14%)	3mo	$380,000	$268	66
917 E Royal Ridge Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,418 (+14%)	1mo	$365,000	$257	59
908 E Sedona Pl	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,371 (+11%)	2mo	$270,700	$197	59
814 E Desert Glen Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,422 (+15%)	2mo	$540,000	$380	58
1629 E Broken Bow Way	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,328 (+7%)	4mo	$310,000	$233	55
1329 E Royal Ridge Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,418 (+14%)	2mo	$350,000	$247	50
1558 E Bright Angel Dr	0.58mi	2/2.5	1,421 (+15%)	4mo	$480,000	$338	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-60,097
• Equity at exit: $55,094

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-52,494
• Equity at exit: $31,948

Cash invested: $103,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85755

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,938
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,829/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$219
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,223

Max offer price $368,763

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,375
• Closing costs: $11,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14248 N Cirrus Hill Dr Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1499	$3,800	$2.54	44d	1	0.92mi
14269 N Trade Winds Way Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1190	$2,750	$2.31	44d	1	0.94mi
14274 N Trade Winds Way Oro Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1499	$4,000	$2.67	44d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $219 · $2,628/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,500 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,500 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,500 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,500 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,500 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,500 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,500 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,500 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,500 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,500 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,500 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,500 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,500 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,500 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $369,500 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    This beautiful home located in Sun City, which is a very desirable active adult community. Come and enjoy the wonderful and many amenities that this community has to offer. Golf, swimming pools, pickleball, tennis, bocce ball courts, aquatic & fitness center, racquet ball court, miniature golf, numerous clubs, restaurant, endless amenities and activities, the lists goes on and on. This home sits on a large lot. Newly painted, new blinds, granite countertops, tile flooring in main living areas with carpet in bedrooms only. Split 2 bedroom floor plan. New guest bathroom vanity. Newer washer & dryer stay. Buyer to pay one time HOA CAP Fee $3,945.00. HOA transfer fee $370

16. 2026-03-21
    price $374,500 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    This beautiful home located in Sun City, which is a very desirable active adult community. Come and enjoy the wonderful and many amenities that this community has to offer. Golf, swimming pools, pickleball, tennis, bocce ball courts, aquatic & fitness center, racquet ball court, miniature golf, numerous clubs, restaurant, endless amenities and activities, the lists goes on and on. This home sits on a large lot. Newly painted, new blinds, granite countertops, tile flooring in main living areas with carpet in bedrooms only. Split 2 bedroom floor plan. New guest bathroom vanity. Newer washer & dryer stay. Buyer to pay one time HOA CAP Fee $3,945.00. HOA transfer fee $370

17. 2025-12-22
    price $379,500 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    This beautiful home located in Sun City, which is a very desirable active adult community. Come and enjoy the wonderful and many amenities that this community has to offer. Golf, swimming pools, pickleball, tennis, bocce ball courts, aquatic & fitness center, racquet ball court, miniature golf, numerous clubs, restaurant, endless amenities and activities, the lists goes on and on. This home sits on a large lot. Newly painted, new blinds, granite countertops, tile flooring in main living areas with carpet in bedrooms only. Split 2 bedroom floor plan. New guest bathroom vanity. Newer washer & dryer stay. Buyer to pay one time HOA CAP Fee $3,945.00. HOA transfer fee $370

18. 2025-11-22
    listed $389,000 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    This beautiful home located in Sun City, which is a very desirable active adult community. Come and enjoy the wonderful and many amenities that this community has to offer. Golf, swimming pools, pickleball, tennis, bocce ball courts, aquatic & fitness center, racquet ball court, miniature golf, numerous clubs, restaurant, endless amenities and activities, the lists goes on and on. This home sits on a large lot. Newly painted, new blinds, granite countertops, tile flooring in main living areas with carpet in bedrooms only. Split 2 bedroom floor plan. New guest bathroom vanity. Newer washer & dryer stay. Buyer to pay one time HOA CAP Fee $3,945.00. HOA transfer fee $370

19. 2016-04-22
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Sun City Oro Valley 2BR/2BA + office Madera Model. Move in Ready! This highly desirable Split Bedroom home has it all. Upgrades abound. Bright Kitchen has New Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, Slide Out Cabinetry and Large Tile Flooring that runs through the main living spaces. Large Master has Walk-in Closet, Bath with Dual Sinks and Slider out to lovely back yard with Covered Patio. Perfect home for relaxing and entertaining. See this wonderful home today! New HVAC 2009, Roof 2005. Sun City features state of the art Fitness Ctr., 18 Hole Golf Course, Pickle Ball & Tennis Courts, 2 Pools, Library, Billiards, over 100 Clubs & Activities and so much more!

20. 2016-04-22
    soldstatus $185,000

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Sun City Oro Valley 2BR/2BA + office Madera Model. Move in Ready! This highly desirable Split Bedroom home has it all. Upgrades abound. Bright Kitchen has New Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, Slide Out Cabinetry and Large Tile Flooring that runs through the main living spaces. Large Master has Walk-in Closet, Bath with Dual Sinks and Slider out to lovely back yard with Covered Patio. Perfect home for relaxing and entertaining. See this wonderful home today! New HVAC 2009, Roof 2005. Sun City features state of the art Fitness Ctr., 18 Hole Golf Course, Pickle Ball & Tennis Courts, 2 Pools, Library, Billiards, over 100 Clubs & Activities and so much more!

21. 2016-03-21
    historical Active Contingent 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Sun City Oro Valley 2BR/2BA + office Madera Model. Move in Ready! This highly desirable Split Bedroom home has it all. Upgrades abound. Bright Kitchen has New Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, Slide Out Cabinetry and Large Tile Flooring that runs through the main living spaces. Large Master has Walk-in Closet, Bath with Dual Sinks and Slider out to lovely back yard with Covered Patio. Perfect home for relaxing and entertaining. See this wonderful home today! New HVAC 2009, Roof 2005. Sun City features state of the art Fitness Ctr., 18 Hole Golf Course, Pickle Ball & Tennis Courts, 2 Pools, Library, Billiards, over 100 Clubs & Activities and so much more!

22. 2016-03-03
    listed $189,950 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Sun City Oro Valley 2BR/2BA + office Madera Model. Move in Ready! This highly desirable Split Bedroom home has it all. Upgrades abound. Bright Kitchen has New Granite Counters, Stainless Appliances, Slide Out Cabinetry and Large Tile Flooring that runs through the main living spaces. Large Master has Walk-in Closet, Bath with Dual Sinks and Slider out to lovely back yard with Covered Patio. Perfect home for relaxing and entertaining. See this wonderful home today! New HVAC 2009, Roof 2005. Sun City features state of the art Fitness Ctr., 18 Hole Golf Course, Pickle Ball & Tennis Courts, 2 Pools, Library, Billiards, over 100 Clubs & Activities and so much more!

23. 2005-11-29
    soldstatus $240,000
24. 2005-11-29
    soldstatus $240,000
25. 2005-09-14
    listed $249,000
26. 1990-03-29
    soldstatus $93,400
27. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $93,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,829 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,829 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,698
• − Property taxes: −$2,829
• − Insurance: −$1,848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,089
• − Management: −$3,089
• − HOA: −$2,628
• − Depreciation: −$10,749
• Taxable loss: −$6,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $1,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Oro Valley

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #1339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oro Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 41,345
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,560
• Household income: $113,831
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 211.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.99%
• Current HPI: 254.1505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+295.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $369,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $374,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $379,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-22 Listed $389,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-22 Sold (MLS) $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-03-21 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2016-03-03 Listed $189,950 MLSSAZ
• 2005-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-29 Sold (MLS) $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-09-14 Listed $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 1990-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $93,400 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $93,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,829 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.