349 Lake Frst

Trinity Center, CA 96091

$55,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $614/mo
• Annual: $7,374/yr
• Cap rate: 19.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.88%
• DSCR: 3.13
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $132 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $-248 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,324 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Trinity Center Elementary (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #159 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $55k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.