349 Lake Frst · Trinity Center, CA 96091

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 243 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $51k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

This fixer mobile sits on 0.35ac of wooded forest, has peekaboo lake views, and it's barely 2 miles to Bowerman Boat Launch. With world-class fishing and recreation in every direction, this older mobile has all the things you need to make a low-budget basecamp in the mountains. Lake views can be had with a little selective trimming and fire safety clearing. There's an airport in nearby Trinity Center, if flying is your style, and also RV and Boat parking to fit any of your toys. The home is older and needs some scrubbing up, but once charmed with a few upgrades it'll really sparkle. There are 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bathroom, and a larger bedroom/bonus room built onto the mobile. Another bonus room s

Key facts

• Rv and boat parking
• Wood stove
• Extra storage

Tags

• PEEKABOO LAKE VIEWS
• RV AND BOAT PARKING
• LARGER BEDROOM BONUS ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE
• OPEN SPACE KITCHEN DINING ROOM
• WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,324 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Trinity Center Elementary (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #159 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $132 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $-248 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $55k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.88%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
349 Lake Frst	0.00mi	3/1.0	800 (0%)	1mo	$51,500	$64	99
340 Lake Frst	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (0%)	1mo	$38,000	$48	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $36,373
• Equity at exit: $14,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $88,002
• Equity at exit: $16,768

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96091

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $441

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2025-10-28
   price $55,000
4. 2025-09-20
   price $65,000
5. 2025-08-21
   price $75,000
6. 2025-07-15
   listed $85,000 Active
7. 1993-08-23
   soldstatus $15,000
8. 1989-08-18
   soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $5,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity Center Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0639750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 75.00%
• Median HH income: $35,474
• Composite: 41.19/100
• National rank: #3545
• State rank: #159 of 517 in CA

Livability — Trinity Center

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1324
• US rank: #26715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 761

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Current HPI: 121.6124
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+378.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Trinity AOR
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $55,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $65,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $75,000 Trinity AOR
• 2025-07-15 Listed $85,000 Trinity AOR
• 1993-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1989-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $449 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.