1450 E Gibson St

Arcadia, FL 34266

$4,500,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,118 sqft · Built 1983 · MultiFamily · Active · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $52,136/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax + insurance: −$4,797
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,949
• Net cashflow: $12,792/mo
• Annual: $153,507/yr
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.18%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $1,260,000

Investor read

• This is a 34 × 56-bed/38.0-bath units multifamily listed at $4.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($154k/yr) — positive. Per door: $376/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $4.50M).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.96M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.96M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $31k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $135k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#345 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nocatee Elementary School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 446 students, 84% FRL); Desoto County High School (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,244 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $2.50M; list at $4.50M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1.26M cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.5% in Arcadia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.