3277 Fox Chase Cir N #105

Palm Harbor, FL 34683

$198,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Pending · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-254/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-254/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.0% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in FL, #1,470 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sutherland Elementary School (math 78% / reading 68%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 627 students, 42% FRL); Palm Harbor University High (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,474 students, 26% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $198k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Palm Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?