13204 Hobnail Dr

Chesterfield, MO 63146

$300,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,268 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$32
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-419/mo
• Annual: $-5,030/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.5% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#110 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: River Bend Elem. (math 42% / reading 61%, grade C-, #268 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 423 students, 18% FRL); Central High (math 53% / reading 73%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 1,244 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $300k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.9% in Chesterfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.