13204 Hobnail Dr · Chesterfield, MO 63146

$300,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1966 0.34 ac lot Est $424k · 29% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Property sold as is, in current condition, needing complete rehab.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.9% in Chesterfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#110 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: River Bend Elem. (math 42% / reading 61%, grade C-, #268 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 423 students, 18% FRL); Central High (math 53% / reading 73%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 1,244 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $300k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,423 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,116
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13009 Musket Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,171 (-4%)	1mo	$419,900	$193	70
1905 Kings Row Mnr	0.60mi	3/3.0	2,249 (-1%)	3mo	$475,000	$211	67
1324 Golden Point Dr	0.34mi	2/3.0 (-1)	2,166 (-4%)	6mo	$365,000	$169	65
13114 Walden Woods Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,045 (-10%)	5mo	$369,900	$181	60
13081 Greenbough Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,463 (+9%)	1mo	$519,900	$211	59
13172 Greenbough Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,579 (+14%)	1mo	$550,000	$213	59
12970 Nancy Lee Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,502 (+10%)	3mo	$359,000	$143	56
13118 Hickory Mill Ct	0.44mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,008 (-12%)	6mo	$374,900	$187	50
1803 Seven Pnes	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,120 (-6%)	2mo	$365,000	$172	49
13116 Fir Tree Ct	0.47mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,569 (+13%)	4mo	$350,000	$136	48
12910 Autumn View Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0	2,019 (-11%)	4mo	$257,500	$128	46
12934 Ballantine Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,992 (-12%)	2mo	$424,900	$213	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $130,684
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $395,081
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,741/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,585

Max offer price $225,957

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 Montmartre Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,300	$1.24	43d	1	1.01mi
12545 Markaire Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1420	$2,695	$1.90	10d	5	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,741 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,741 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,741
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,508
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Chesterfield

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #7054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 43,243
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Listed $300,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,741 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.