4662 S 30th Rd

Fair Play, MO 65649

$90,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 330 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $368/mo
• Annual: $4,420/yr
• Cap rate: 11.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.54%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 330 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#859 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fair Play R-II (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #266 of 535 in MO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 330 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.