4662 S 30th Rd · Fair Play, MO 65649

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 330 Days on market

Built 2005 0.30 ac lot $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

Key facts

• Nearby amenities
• Quiet neighborhood
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• STOCKTON LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#859 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fair Play R-II (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #266 of 535 in MO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 330 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 330 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.54%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $38,526
• Equity at exit: $45,002

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $99,155
• Equity at exit: $73,106

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65649

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $209/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $90,000 Pending 330 DOM
2. 2026-03-28
   price $90,000 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

3. 2026-02-17
   price $99,900 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

4. 2026-02-17
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

5. 2026-02-01
   status Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

6. 2025-12-04
   price $114,000 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

7. 2025-08-01
   price $118,000 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

8. 2025-07-11
   price $124,900 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

9. 2025-07-03
   listed $129,900 Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Priced to MOVE!!!Enjoy peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby amenities in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home priced to Sell! Nestled on a corner lot in a quiet neighborhood, this well-sized home offers comfortable living just minutes from Stockton Lake and town access. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, you'll appreciate the serene setting, spacious layout, and unbeatable location. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy the best of both worlds quiet country charm with city conveniences just around the corner!

10. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus
11. 2024-04-26
    soldstatus Closed 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    This manufactured home on permanent foundation boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and spans 1216 square feet in total. Situated on a larger corner lot, it offers ample outdoor space and potential for landscaping or additional amenities. Its proximity to Stockton Lake provides convenient access for recreational activities such as fishing, boating, or simply enjoying the scenic surroundings. With its spacious layout and favorable location, this property offers both comfort and convenience for those seeking a relaxed lakeside lifestyle.

12. 2024-04-12
    status Pending 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    This manufactured home on permanent foundation boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and spans 1216 square feet in total. Situated on a larger corner lot, it offers ample outdoor space and potential for landscaping or additional amenities. Its proximity to Stockton Lake provides convenient access for recreational activities such as fishing, boating, or simply enjoying the scenic surroundings. With its spacious layout and favorable location, this property offers both comfort and convenience for those seeking a relaxed lakeside lifestyle.

13. 2024-03-28
    listed $119,900 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    This manufactured home on permanent foundation boasts three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and spans 1216 square feet in total. Situated on a larger corner lot, it offers ample outdoor space and potential for landscaping or additional amenities. Its proximity to Stockton Lake provides convenient access for recreational activities such as fishing, boating, or simply enjoying the scenic surroundings. With its spacious layout and favorable location, this property offers both comfort and convenience for those seeking a relaxed lakeside lifestyle.

14. 2023-12-26
    soldstatus
15. 2023-11-30
    status Pending
16. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus Closed
17. 2023-10-13
    price $29,900
18. 2023-09-07
    listed $39,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $209 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 318.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$209
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$746
• After-tax cash flow: $3,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fair Play R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911730
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,331
• Composite: 37.67/100
• National rank: #8787
• State rank: #266 of 535 in MO

Livability — Fair Play

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #24972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,152

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,229 people
• By 2030: 31,227 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 31,104 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 30,553 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 29,332 · -6.1%
• By 2100: 26,387 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 18.6% · R 80.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.1pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+56.9 2012: R+43.2 2008: R+32.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Current HPI: 266.2512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $90,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $99,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $114,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $118,000 SOMO
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $124,900 SOMO
• 2025-07-03 Listed $129,900 SOMO
• 2024-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-26 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2024-04-12 Pending — SOMO
• 2024-03-28 Listed $119,900 SOMO
• 2023-12-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-11-30 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $29,900 SOMO
• 2023-09-07 Listed $39,999 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $209 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.