2520 County Road 319

La Vernia, TX 78121

$425,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,167 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$649
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,385/yr
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (5.9% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $400k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#994 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Vernia ISD (rural): math 61% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #62 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: La Vernia Pri (881 students, 31% FRL); La Vernia H S (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 981 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.4% in La Vernia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.