2520 County Road 319 · La Vernia, TX 78121

$425,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 1.17 ac lot Est $485k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.17 acres in La Vernia. Not in a defined subdivision. Minimal restrictions in place. County road frontage.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Flexible nook
• Open views

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• OPEN VIEWS
• FLEXIBLE NOOK
• COFFEE BAR
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Rolling Hills Sub (community)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Oversized parking available
• Utilities: Electric service by GVEC; Co-op water and septic; Water supplier: SS Water Sup; Garbage service: Waste Connec
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Approx. 3 years old; Located in the Rolling Hills subdivision
• Construction: Siding exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by United Built Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Partial fence; Double-pane windows; Storage building / shed; Gutters; Special yard lighting; County view; Level lot; County road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom: split plan, on lower level, walk-in closet, multiple closets, ceiling fan, full bath (16 x 14); Bedroom 2: 15 x 10; Bedroom 3: 14 x 11; Bedroom 4: 12 x 12
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and double vanity (7 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer and dryer connections; Disposal; Dishwasher; Stove/Range; Garage door opener; Smoke alarm; Electric water heater; Private garbage service; 1 living area with separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen with island and walk-in pantry; Utility room inside / laundry room; Open floor plan; Pull-down storage; All bedrooms on lower level; Some window coverings remain; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Utility/Laundry room inside (9 x 10); Washer connection; Dryer connection; Garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.4% in La Vernia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#994 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Vernia ISD (rural): math 61% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #62 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: La Vernia Pri (881 students, 31% FRL); La Vernia H S (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 981 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,000 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $485,408
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2520 County Road 319	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,167 (0%)	1mo	$425,000	$196	100
524 Jacobs	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,120 (-2%)	2mo	$500,000	$236	78
568 Jacobs Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,185 (+1%)	6mo	$489,900	$224	66
517 Jacobs Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,276 (+5%)	13mo	$580,000	$255	66
147 Shadow Woods	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,214 (+2%)	18mo	$445,000	$201	63
521 Jacobs Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-15%)	15mo	$415,000	$225	49
411 Rose Blossom Loop	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,308 (+6%)	14mo	$465,000	$201	48
561 Jacobs Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,428 (+12%)	11mo	$570,000	$235	47
112 Rolling Hills Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-14%)	18mo	$250,000	$134	46
159 Shadow Woods	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (-14%)	21mo	$397,500	$212	41
300 Rose Garden Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,369 (+9%)	15mo	$554,000	$234	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-50,877
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-21,069
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78121

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,665/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,643

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Scenic Hills Dr La Vernia, TX	4.0	2.5	2382	$4,000	$1.68	1d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $425,000 New
4. 2021-06-14
   soldstatus Sold 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   1.17 acres in La Vernia. Not in a defined subdivision. Minimal restrictions in place. County road frontage.

5. 2021-05-20
   status Pending 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   1.17 acres in La Vernia. Not in a defined subdivision. Minimal restrictions in place. County road frontage.

6. 2021-05-06
   historical Active Option 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   1.17 acres in La Vernia. Not in a defined subdivision. Minimal restrictions in place. County road frontage.

7. 2021-04-27
   listed $69,900 New 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   1.17 acres in La Vernia. Not in a defined subdivision. Minimal restrictions in place. County road frontage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,665 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,778 · $648/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,113/yr (+$176/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$5,665
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $4,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, modern single-family home is move-in ready with no immediate repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout, modern finishes, and a beautiful outdoor space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase property value
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vernia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826310
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $81,317
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1704
• State rank: #62 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Vernia

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #994
• US rank: #17682

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,001

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Czech 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.30%
• Current HPI: 223.1249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+508.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-23 Listed $425,000 LERA
• 2021-06-14 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-05-20 Pending — LERA
• 2021-05-06 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-04-27 Listed $69,900 LERA

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,665 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.