200 State Rt 94 Unit 207

Vernon Center, NJ 07462

$184,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$637
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-101/mo
• Annual: $-1,211/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (7.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#213 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: commute C-, amenities F.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Meadow Middle School (math 14% / reading 47%, grade F, #303 of 431 statewide, top 72%, 645 students, 17% FRL); Vernon Township High School (math 20% / reading 52%, grade F, #230 of 399 statewide, top 58%, 929 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Vernon Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?