200 State Rt 94 Unit 207 · Vernon, NJ 07462

$184,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Condo · 116 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $637/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sunset Views!! Enjoy this 1 bedroom condo at the Appalachian Lodge at New Jersey's premier ski resort Mountain Creek. This home away from home is all you could hope for in a vacation retreat. Situated at the base of the ski slopes and a short walk to the nearby waterpark makes this location both convenient and easy. Enjoy golfing at the nearby 27 hole golf course at Great Gorge, or go treescaping and zip lining, just some of the other activities provided at Mountain Creek. Truly the best kept secret in New Jersey. There is also an optional rental program available to owners..

Key facts

• Mountain creek
• Ski slopes
• 27 hole golf course

Tags

• SUNSET VIEWS
• SKI SLOPES
• WATERPARK
• 27 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• MOUNTAIN CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (7.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon Township School District (rural): math 18% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Meadow Middle School (math 14% / reading 47%, grade F, #303 of 431 statewide, top 72%, 645 students, 17% FRL); Vernon Township High School (math 20% / reading 52%, grade F, #230 of 399 statewide, top 58%, 929 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $168,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-35,961
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-37,857
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07462

• Home prices YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$637
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $170,302

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-37	+0% $-101	+5% $-165	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-192	+0% $-101	+5% $-10	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-54	base $-101	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Stonehill Dr #1 Vernon, NJ	2.0	1.0	748	$2,100	$2.81	45d	1	0.72mi
7 Theta Dr Apt 311 Vernon Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	715	$2,475	$3.46	45d	1	1.18mi
7 Theta Dr Apt 211 Vernon Township, NJ	1.0	1.0	715	$2,425	$3.39	45d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $637 · $7,644/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,900 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-02-25
    listed $184,900 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Sunset Views!! Enjoy this 1 bedroom condo at the Appalachian Lodge at New Jersey's premier ski resort Mountain Creek. This home away from home is all you could hope for in a vacation retreat. Situated at the base of the ski slopes and a short walk to the nearby waterpark makes this location both convenient and easy. Enjoy golfing at the nearby 27 hole golf course at Great Gorge, or go treescaping and zip lining, just some of the other activities provided at Mountain Creek. Truly the best kept secret in New Jersey. There is also an optional rental program available to owners..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$7,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,933
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $-267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1-bedroom condo at Mountain Creek Ski Resort is in good condition with a good location and scenic views. It has a good ROI potential with minor updates to enhance curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both New flooring in kitchen — Modernizes space and improves resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen — Modernizes space and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416710
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $84,455
• Composite: 30.63/100
• National rank: #6188
• State rank: #294 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vernon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon Center, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 6,892

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.6% · R 61.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+22.4 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.96%
• Current HPI: 319.3757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $184,900 GSMLS