2117 Estate Dr

Deer Park, TX 77536

$199,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$517
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,502/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carpenter El (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 847 students, 60% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.