2117 Estate Dr · Deer Park, TX 77536

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1950 7,021 sqft lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $209k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1,330 square foot house sits on a 7,020 square foot lot and features 3 bedrooms, Game room and 2 bathrooms. Recently updated. It won't last!

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Pex plumbing
• New hvac

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• PEX PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEW TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (20 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (13 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 9); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carpenter El (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 847 students, 60% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,891 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,804
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2206 Hillshire Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+5%)	14mo	$234,000	$167	73
2606 Hillshire Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$191	70
3625 Whatley Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+8%)	6mo	$272,000	$190	69
1014 Brookhollow Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+4%)	0mo	$269,500	$194	66
3205 Brookhurst Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+7%)	1mo	$269,500	$190	65
1110 Brookhollow Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+6%)	2mo	$249,000	$177	64
1010 Wisdom Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+14%)	2mo	$295,000	$195	60
2406 Hillshire Dr	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,488 (+12%)	11mo	$259,000	$174	58
1818 Hillshire Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-13%)	11mo	$185,000	$160	51
2413 Estate Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+15%)	14mo	$264,900	$174	47
6510 Bramley Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+14%)	7mo	$250,000	$165	46
7406 Valeda Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-13%)	7mo	$205,000	$177	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-41,419
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-51,186
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77536

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,206/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,975

Max offer price $176,891

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$2,510	$2.60	1d	22	0.35mi
4311 Glenwood Ave Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1028	$1,001	$0.97	43d	1	0.42mi
500 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1300	$2,030	$1.56	1d	25	0.58mi
510 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,476	$1.31	43d	1	0.58mi
407 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,220	$1.19	43d	1	0.59mi
401 McDermott St Deer Park, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,585	$1.69	5d	13	0.61mi
401 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,090	$2.01	1d	21	0.66mi
6565 Spencer Hwy Unit 6598 Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,602	$1.33	2d	1	0.76mi
1803 Weeping Oaks Pasadena, TX	3.0	3.0	1833	$1,895	$1.03	43d	1	0.79mi
1817 New Orleans St Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,240	$1.25	24d	1	0.85mi
7201 Spencer Hwy Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,600	$1.73	43d	18	1.02mi
722 E Brown Ln Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,844	$1.37	24d	1	1.28mi
1516 Sam Houston Pkwy Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,600	$1.70	43d	1	1.35mi
7912 Spencer Hwy Pasadena, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$950	$1.00	43d	1	1.43mi
5939 Ollia Cir Pasadena, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,015	$1.33	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Pending 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Pending 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $204,900 636-char remark
11. 2026-04-24
    listed $209,900 Active 636-char remark
12. 2019-11-18
    status Pending
13. 2019-11-07
    status Option Pending
14. 2019-11-06
    historical
15. 2019-11-01
    price $155,000
16. 2019-10-04
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus
18. 2017-07-27
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    This 1,330 square foot house sits on a 7,020 square foot lot and features 3 bedrooms, Game room and 2 bathrooms. Recently updated. It won't last!

19. 2017-06-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    This 1,330 square foot house sits on a 7,020 square foot lot and features 3 bedrooms, Game room and 2 bathrooms. Recently updated. It won't last!

20. 2017-06-04
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    This 1,330 square foot house sits on a 7,020 square foot lot and features 3 bedrooms, Game room and 2 bathrooms. Recently updated. It won't last!

21. 2017-06-04
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    This 1,330 square foot house sits on a 7,020 square foot lot and features 3 bedrooms, Game room and 2 bathrooms. Recently updated. It won't last!

22. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,206 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,206 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,206
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $-344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,227
• Composite: 43.3/100
• National rank: #3039
• State rank: #170 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #5835

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,174
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,174
• Household income: $102,045
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.30%
• Current HPI: 253.1973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+59.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $204,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2019-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-11-01 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-04 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2017-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-04 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,206 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.