1463 Spears Creek Rd

Columbia, SC 29078

$295,500D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,550
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $458/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $82,740

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $296k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($458/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (24.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $223k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Kershaw 01 (rural): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in SC (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lugoff-Elgin High (math 65% / reading 89%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,744 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kershaw 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 491 units permitted in Kershaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kershaw County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $296k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.