107 Fowler Ave

Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$299,900D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · Built 1944 · MultiFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$643
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $331/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($331/yr) — positive. Per door: $14/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (5.3% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herbert Hoover Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 565 students, 43% FRL); Herbert Hoover Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 758 students, 51% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $300k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,840/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 727% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.