107 Fowler Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$299,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1944 5,390 sqft lot Est $292k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Maintenance free vinyl sided 3/2 duplex with 2.5 car garage on fully fenced lot. Owners side has built on addition with half bath that can serve as either a third bedroom or den. Great mechanic's with two new furnaces and owner side a/c(2012). Updated electrical boxes. Copper plumbing. Many newer windows thru-out. Hardwood floors. Enclosed mudroom off back entrance hallway. Overhead storage in the garage. Basement has storage units along with small finished office. Garage roof 2013.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• New chimney
• Newer driveway

Tags

• OWNER OCCUPIED DUPLEX
• QUIET STREET
• NEWER AIR CONDITIONING UNITS
• NEW CHIMNEY
• DURABLE GLASS BLOCK WINDOWS
• NEWER DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner/responsibility and rent include details: see remarks
• Financial info: Two total units in the building; Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with approximately 2.5-car capacity; Additional parking with two or more spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Two-story multifamily property; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot (approx. 49 x 110); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchens in each unit
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Unit configurations include full and half baths: one unit with 1 full bath; the other unit with 1 full bath and 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Varied flooring including carpet and hardwood
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Separate gas and electric meters for each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($331/yr) — positive. Per door: $14/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herbert Hoover Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 565 students, 43% FRL); Herbert Hoover Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 758 students, 51% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,840/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 727% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $300k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $284,000 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,336
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
186 Pullman Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (+4%)	5mo	$328,000	$163	75
371 Hamilton Blvd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (+2%)	8mo	$300,000	$152	73
86 Pullman Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-7%)	6mo	$315,000	$176	71
175 W Girard Blvd	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+3%)	7mo	$265,000	$132	69
165 Tremont Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-2%)	1mo	$331,000	$175	66
87 Eiseman Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,012 (+4%)	5mo	$133,000	$66	62
310 Kinsey Ave	0.31mi	5/2.0	2,122 (+10%)	8mo	$320,000	$151	60
175 Mayville Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-14%)	5mo	$225,000	$134	58
374 Victoria Blvd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (-5%)	8mo	$235,522	$129	50
87 Tulane Rd	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,178 (+12%)	3mo	$250,000	$115	49
379 Victoria Blvd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-9%)	6mo	$285,606	$162	47
92 Tremont Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,160 (+12%)	5mo	$240,000	$111	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-31,703
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $43,496
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14217

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,221/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,805

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $112	+0% $28	+5% $-57	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-85	+0% $28	+5% $140	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $104	base $28	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-129

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,840
Total (2 units)			$2,840

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	0.17mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	25d	1	0.78mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	3d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,221 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,221 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$6,221
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,726
• − Management: −$2,726
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $1,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,471
• Household income: $73,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.52%
• Current HPI: 330.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.76%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+203.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $299,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-19 Sold (MLS) $110,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-05-01 Listed $107,500 WNYREIS
• 2004-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $98,969 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,221 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.