4737 Winding Trl

Greensboro, NC 27358

$402,235D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,504 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,433/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,109
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$721
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-812/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $112,626

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $402k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-812/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (14.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $343k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ep Pearce Elementary (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 667 students, 26% FRL); Kernodle Middle (math 62% / reading 60%, grade B+, #40 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 745 students, 40% FRL); Northwest Guilford High (math 72% / reading 64%, grade B, #137 of 535 statewide, top 26%, 1,991 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Guilford County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.