Trailfork Rd

Barboursville, VA 22923

$369,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-598/mo
• Annual: $-7,174/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $103,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-598 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $248k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 333 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 92d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $137k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.